No huge gaffes, but a game changer? Not to me. What did you think?

The Vice Presidential debate between Senator Joe Biden and Gov. Sarah Palin begins at 9pm ET on CNN. Big Tent Democrat, TChris, the TL Kid and I will be live-blogging.

The live blog stays below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

You can comment same as always in the comment section below. You also can send us live messages through the software. Only comments you post below will be visible to readers here. [More...]

In an episode of The Simpsons that will air on November 2, Homer attempts to vote for Obama.

In 90 minutes, Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Sarah Palin will debate. Politico reports Palin's game plan is to attack Biden and throw his words from former statements, particularly about foreign policy, back at him. Biden, it reports, will be a "just the facts" style debater, concentrating on defending Obama and attacking McCain.

Expectations for Palin, once in the tank, now are mounting.

“This is going to finally put her back into a position where we see her like we saw her the first couple weeks,” a McCain official said. “She was herself. She was authentic, and people related to that. ... Tonight, she’ll get into a rhythm. You’re going to see her in a way that you haven’t seen her yet.”

I don't know that anyone much cares. They're tuning in to see if there's a train wreck.

I don't expect any major gaffes from Palin. She's been coached to the gills by now. Nor do I expect she'll win McCain any voters. [More...]

From the new issue of Rolling Stone: Make-Believe Maverick -- a ten page article on John McCain that finds:

A closer look at the life and career of John McCain reveals a disturbing record of recklessness and dishonesty.

Also check out two companion features in the same issue:

• The Double-Talk Express:

  From tax cuts to torture, John McCain has flip-flopped on a host of issues - including his own immigration bill

• The Truth about Sarah Palin:

  Sarah Palin's credentials as a "reformer" are nothing but spin. She has sided with Big Oil, lobbied to increase pork spending and abused her public power to carry out personal vendettas. Here's a guide to separating myth from fact.

Give Michigan's 17 electoral votes to Barack Obama. At least that's the way John McCain sees it.

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play. McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.

McCain might as well write off Wisconsin while he's at it. Even rural Wisconsin communities that were littered with Bush signs four years ago now feature hard-to-get Obama signs. Florida and Ohio are better places for McCain to spend his dwindling time and dollars.

Barack Obama delivered a good speech yesterday in LaCrosse, Wisconsin. It was marred by his failure to address, or promise to address, the plight of homeowners and Main Street in this country. Unlike Hillary Clinton, Obama has not embraced a modern day HOLC. It is perplexing to me why he refuses to do so.

Today, the NYTimes Ed Board wrote:

Falling house prices are driving the collapse of the financial system. But the bailout bill, even the “sweetened” version that was approved by the Senate Wednesday night, does little to avert the defaults and foreclosures that are pushing house values ever downward. At last count, six million people were expected to default on their mortgages this year and next, putting them at risk of losing their homes unless they can catch up in their payments or catch a break on their loan terms. And they’re not the only ones at risk. As prices drop, millions of people who have never missed a mortgage payment stand to lose their home equity.

And yet, Obama has had little to say on this subject. It is perplexing to me. More . . .

Poor John McCain:

Asked why Obama has been rising as the Wall Street crisis has dominated attention, McCain said on Fox News Channel: "Because life isn’t fair."

What a great new campaign slogan! It's one with which most of us would agree after enduring eight years of a Republican presidency.

Despite suspending his campaign (but not really) and returning to Washington to muck up negotiations on the bailout bill and failing to deliver a majority of Republican House votes for the plan he endorsed, McCain lost ground to Obama in the polls. How terribly unfair it is that voters are noticing how lost and ineffectual McCain is, how empty his rhetoric has been since backing away from his proclamation that the fundamentals of the economy are "strong," how hypocritical he is in calling for regulation of the finance industry after championing deregulation throughout his career.

McCain has joined the ranks of the whiners. Suck it up, Senator. You only have another month until you can take a nice long nap and try to forget that the election ever happened.

DKos/R2000 (9/29-10/1) has Obama up 11, 51-40. Battleground (9/28-10/1) has Obama up 5, 49-44. CBS (9/27-30) has Obama up 9, 50-41. Gallup(9/28-30) has Obama up 4. WaPo (9/27-29) has Obama up 4, 50-46. AP (9/27-29) has Obama up 7, 48-41. Ipsos/McClatchey (9/26-29) has Obama up 3, 48-45. Time (9/26-29) has Obama up 7, 50-43. Hotline (9/28-30) has Obama up 5, 47-42. Ras (9/28-30) has Obama up 6, 51-45.

Another day and McCain needs a game changer. Starting tonight with the Palin-Biden debate, continuing to the Obama- McCain debate on October 7, these 5 days may be McCain's last chance.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Josh Marshall writes:

Immediately after saying what a terrible decision Roe was, Palin got a follow-up question from Couric about whether she believes there's a constitutional 'right to privacy'. And Palin said, yes. Now, narrowly speaking, you can believe in a constitutional right to privacy and also oppose Roe. But the right to privacy, as Couric says in the interview, is one of the cornerstones of Roe. And in the public debate yes or no on the right to privacy is something pretty close to a proxy for your position on abortion rights.

This is wrong. Republicans and anti-Roe advocates learned from the Robert Bork experience - you acknowledge a right to privacy in the liberty clause of the 14th Amendment without conceding an inch on Roe. Anyone who watched John Roberts and Samuel Alito in their confirmation hearings should know this. Marshall has misread the new political rhetoric from the Right on this. The rise of Dred Scott as the dogwhistle on Roe is a result of the need to replace the attack on the right to privacy and Griswold. [More...]

Some unsolicited advice for Sarah Palin. And not of the Rovian concern troll variety. Ignore the handlers. Do not worry about the details of your general answers. Do not try to be a wonk.

Palin's strength is her personality and personna. She is not the person in the room with all the knowledge obviously. She will never convince anyone of that. Heck, she might want to expressly avow that.

The politician she most reminds me of is not Dan Quayle, it is Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was the most ignorant person I can remember to have ever held high public office. He was wrong on the facts almost every time. But he was confident in his beliefs. He was incredibly wrong about them, but as a politician, he projected a confidence and disregard for the pointy heads that had great appeal. Trying to stuff her with facts, which is what the McCain people seem to have done, was a great mistake. The Joe Sixpack line she delivered the other day may have been a signal that the McCain camp has woken up to this fact.

More . . .

Yesterday I wrote that if we start seeing personal attack ads in the battleground states, it's a sign McCain knows it's just about over for him. Looks like the same goes for his supporters.

Via Politico, it's begun.

The conservative Judicial Confirmation Network goes up today with an ad reminding voters in two key states about Obama's ties to Tony Rezko, Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright. Representatives for the group say it will be a "$1 million ad and grassroots effort" around the veep debate tomorrow and the opening of the new Supreme Court session Monday.