Early voting is already open in some states. Up to 1/3 of voters may vote before Election Day. I plan to vote early, just to avoid any problems and lines at polling places. I think it's a surer way to make sure my vote gets counted.

I'm wondering about the effect of any "October Surprise." It will be too late if it comes after enough people have voted.

Encourage everyone you know at work and in your social life to vote early. Don't take a chance on a last minute sleazy attempt by Republicans to change people's minds.

I am still tied up and can't take the time to discuss the issues here, but I wanted to state what I think the most important question of the coming days for me is - will Barack Obama lead the Democrats in a fight against the 700 billion dollar blank check the Bush Administration is asking for to bail out Wall Street?

This is a 3 AM moment. The time to lead is now. We will find out a lot about Barack Obama in the coming days. We already know what John McCain is, an incompetent ideologue. Let's hope that Obama proves himself a leader.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Update: The Washington Post reports Obama will fight big in Florida, spending at least $39 million in the state. He says if the Dems win Florida, it will be almost impossible for McCain to win the election.

In a Florida poll taken after last Monday's economic tumble, the Miami Herald reports John McCain has a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Barack Obama.

If you scroll through the graphic of results, you will see that McCain leads on commander-in-chief issues but Obama leads on economic issues. That's good news for Obama because 43% believe the next president's most important issue will be fixing the economy while only 14% think Iraq is the most important and only 12% think managing terrorism is most important.

The New York Times compares Barack Obama and John McCain's effect on the Supreme Court.

Mr. McCain has promised the right wing of the Republican Party that he would put only archconservatives on the Supreme Court. Even moderate conservatives like Anthony Kennedy, the court’s current swing justice, would not have a chance.

Mr. McCain, whose Web site proclaims his dedication to overturning Roe v. Wade, would appoint justices who could be expected to lead the charge to eliminate the right to abortion. The kinds of justices for whom Mr. McCain has expressed a strong preference would also be likely to undermine the right of habeas corpus, allowing the government to detain people indefinitely without access to lawyers or family members.

After more examples of the court we'd get under McCain, the Times evaluates Obama's effect: [More...]

The now infamous $25 million Road to Nowhere opened in Alaska this week.

Ketchikan Mayor Bob Weinstein said the 3.2-mile road now is ideal for road races and hunting, and possibly some commercial development. But with no bridge to serve it, that's probably about it.

If I were Sarah Palin, I'd drop both the Bridge and the Road to Nowhere from her list of accomplishments. They are just fodder for late night jokes and they speak poorly of her so-called executive acumen, not to mention her veracity.

John McCain will undoubtedly accuse Barack Obama of mischaracterizing McCain's position on social security, but voters are beginning to understand that McCain has taken every side of every issue, including social security, during his lengthy career in Washington. McCain is recently on record endorsing President Bush's failed privatization plan, despite his campaign's assurance that McCain is "100 percent committed to preserving Social Security benefits for seniors." McCain tied himself to Bush when he thought it would help him. If the embarrassing knots are difficult to untie now, McCain has only himself to blame.

As he did in this ad, Obama today described McCain as a reckless gambler ready to bet social security trust fund revenue on private investments. Obama seized the moment to make an argument that should separate McCain from a large segment of voters (elderly and getting there) who foresee disaster if part of the social security system is converted to a voluntary program of private investment.

Obama, speaking to potential voters in Daytona Beach: [more ...]

The New York Times reports that at the insistence of the McCain campaign, the debate between Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Biden will have different rules than those for the Obama-McCain debate:

At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between Gov. Sarah Palin and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, the advisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.

McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely on the defensive.

More...

How big a role will race play in the presidential election? Via an AP poll out today:

According to the poll released Saturday, a little over one-third of white Democrats and independents agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, and they are less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't hold such views.

....statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.

Full poll results are here (pdf.) AP analysis is here. [More..]

The editorial today in the Anchorage Daily News is Abidcation by Palin, criticizing her for allowing John McCain and his operatives speak for her on TrooperGate.

The governor who said, "Hold me accountable," is hiding behind the hired guns of the McCain campaign to avoid accountability. Is it too much to ask that Alaska's governor speak for herself, directly to Alaskans, about her actions as Alaska's governor?

....Is the McCain campaign telling Alaskans that Alaska's governor can't handle her own defense in front of her own Alaska constituents?

The calls the takeover "offensive": [More...]

When Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin filed her request earlier this week to stop the Personnel Board investigation into TrooperGate that her lawyer had requested just days earlier, she included a new reason for firing former Public Safety Director Walt Monaghan: He was a renegade who took an unauthorized trip to Washington, DC to lobby for money for a program to investigate and prosecute rape.

The project, expected to cost from $10 million to $20 million a year for five years, would have been the first of its kind in Alaska, which leads the nation in reported forcible rape.

The McCain-Palin campaign echoed the charge in a press release it distributed Monday, concurrent with Palin's legal filing. "Mr. Monegan persisted in planning to make the unauthorized lobbying trip to D.C.," the release stated.

But, ABC News has obtained the travel authorization document (pdf). The trip was authorized by Palin's office. [More...]

I received this by e-mail last week from a lawyer. Feel free to check its accuracy, but it sounds legit to me and I'm passing it on.

1. Palin has attacked Alaska Native Subsistence Fishing

Perhaps no issue is of greater importance to Alaska Native peoples as the right to hunt and fish according to ancient customary and traditional practices, and to carry on the subsistence way of life for future generations. Governor Sarah Palin has consistently opposed those rights.

Once in office, Governor Palin decided to continue litigation that seeks to overturn every subsistence fishing determination the federal government has ever made in Alaska. (State of Alaska v. Norton, 3:05-cv-0158-HRH (D. Ak).) In pressing this case, Palin decided against using the Attorney General (which usually handles State litigation) and instead continued contracting with Senator Ted Stevens’ brother-in-law’s law firm (Birch, Horton, Bittner & Cherot).

More...

The St. Petersburg Times has been conducting focus group testing on undecided voters.

Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.

Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin.

Among the comments: [More...]