Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab' travel route:

Mr Abdulmutallab's route began in Yemen, from where he travelled to Ethiopia, Ghana and Nigeria. On 24 December, he flew from Lagos to Amsterdam, where he boarded the flight to Detroit.

He bought the ticket to Detroit on Dec. 16 in Ghana. So how could the plot have been retaliation for U.S. participation in Yemen's Dec 17 and 23 attacks on al Qaida as the group claims? They hadn't happened yet. Here's a link to the released statement in Arabic, with photos of Abdulmutallab and an airliner.

His roommate told the Yemen paper Abdulmutallab was in Yemen from July to October. The Yemen Government says he was there from early August to early December.

Did he train in Ethiopia or Ghana? Did he just stop in Nigeria to get the underwear? Where was the device actually made? Lots of questions still.

It's been known for a long time that Said Ali al Shihri, believed to be al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula's (AQAP) second-in-command was released from Guantanamo to Saudi Arabia in November 2007. Same for the second Guantanamo detainee Muhamad Attik al-Harbi, whose name is now Abu-al-Harith Muhammad al-Awfi. In other words, this ABC news story is not news.

Both were featured in the January, 2009 video announcing the formation of AQAP contained in Sada al-Malahim, (Arabic for “The Echo of Battle”), the group's online magazine. In January, 2009, the Stratford Group, had this long article on AQAP, the two released Gitmo detainees and why the Saudi's "rehabilitation" efforts to deprogram and reprogram them may have failed. [More...]

Update: Here's a Nov. 2009 report on AQAP and Yemen.

Al Qaida-Arabian Peninsula (a merged group of Saudi and Yemeni al-Qaida cells I described here) has released a statement claiming the explosive device carried by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab was manufactured by its members. It says the act was in retaliation for a U.S. operation against the group in Yemen.

Via Al-Jazeera: the group says "a technical fault prevented it from successfully detonating."

The U.S. assisted Yemen in carrying out two airstrikes against AQ-AP members this month, one on Dec. 23 and the other on Dec. 17. It's still not known who was killed in those attacks, but it is believed the group's top leaders were either not there or survived.

Abdulmutallab snuck into Nigeria the day before boarding the Detroit flight in Amsterdam. It's not clear when he last was in Yemen, although his roomate has told a Yemeni paper he arrived in July and left in October. [More...]

Foreign policy expert Marc Lynch points out the Christmas Day bomb attempt by Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab is barely causing a stir in the Arab media.

Whether it's AQ or not, nobody in Arab media cares

I don't know what kind of contacts the failed airplane bomber did or didn't have with Al-Qaeda Central or Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and neither does anybody else who has commented since it happened. The extent of such contacts will be mildly interesting, but it surprises nobody working on CT issues that there are still people swimming in the AQ milieu who want to hit the United States, whether on their own or with support from some AQ affiliates. One of the real stories here, which has gone largely unremarked in the coverage I've seen, is that the Arab media generally couldn't care less.

[More...]

Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the 23 year old Nigerian who was apprehended after a foiled attempt to allegedly detonate an explosive device on a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit, has been charged via complaint in the Eastern District of Michigan with willful attempt to destroy an aircraft and willfully placing and causing to be placed a destructive device on an aircraft. Both carry up to 20 years in prison. The DOJ manual explains the offenses here. The statute is here. Abdulmutallab is charged under sections (a)(1), (a)(2) and (a)(8).

[P]assengers told authorities that Abdulmutallab went into a bathroom on the plane for about 20 minutes. When he returned, he said he had a stomach ache and covered himself with a blanket. Moments later, passengers heard a pop, smelled smoke and the ensuing fire.

A preliminary FBI analysis found that the device contained the high explosive pentaerythritol, according to an affidavit filed in support of the criminal complaint. The FBI also found what look like remnants of a syringe believed to have been part of the device.

The complaint is here (pdf.) The Government alleges that PETN is a destructive device under 18 USC 921 (a)(4). A passenger took a smoking syringe from Abdulmutallab, shook it to make it stop smoking and threw it on the floor of the aircraft. (Interesting that the passenger knew to do that. Sounds risky and dangerous to me.) [More...]

Earlier today the press was reporting someone set off fireworks on a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. Now, the feds believe the man, a Nigerian living in London, was acting on behalf of al Qaida and trying to set off a bomb. The Washington Post reports:

The suspect is 23-year-old Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab, a federal official said...Although not on the TSA's "no-fly" list, Abdulmutallab's name appears to be included in the government's records of terrorism suspects, according to a preliminary review, authorities said.

...Abdulmutallab has told federal investigators that he had ties to al-Qaeda and traveled to Yemen to collect the incendiary device and instructions on how to use it, according to a federal counterterrorism official briefed on the case. But authorities have yet to verify the claim, and they expect to conduct several more interviews before they determine whether he is credible, the official said.

So, the DEA and its paid informants go to Africa for a sting. (AP here, NY Times here, U.S. Attorney press release here.)

The DEA informants pretend to be from FARC, willing to ship cocaine from South America to Africa where three Africans with claimed al- Qaida ties promise to transport it across the African desert into Spain.

Here's the Complaint (pdf). It doesn't sound like they got any cocaine or there ever was any cocaine, and the deal almost fell apart a few days before the bust.

It wasn't really FARC, just paid DEA informants pretending to be FARC. There never was any drugs, the pretend drugs weren't headed to the U.S. but Europe, yet the three would-be purchasers/transporters are arrested in Ghana and flown to New York for prosecution on terror and narco-terror charges here. [More...]

ABC News has obtained the Pakistani report on the interrogations of the five men who were reported missing in the U.S. and arrested in Pakistan. (Report available here.) Three of the five were born in the U.S. From the report:

They were all college students. They had deep interest in the religion and they were of the opinion that a Jihad must be waged against the infidels for the atrocities committed by them against Muslims around the world. Among them Ahmed Abdullah Minni used to regularly visit the internet page of YouTube. He used to the praise the videos which showed attacks on the US Army and Installations. This became a regular feature and Minni, a registered user of YouTube, regularly praised such attacks. Soon after, Minni was contacted by a person named “Saifullah”.

The five had an interesting way of e-mailing each other: [More...]

The mother of one of the five missing men arrested in Pakistan says he traveled there to meet her and her husband who were trying to arrange a marriage for him. She says her husband was arrested along with her son, bringing the total number arrested from the U.S. to six.

In an interview with CNN, Subira Farouk said her son, Umar, was one of the young men detained in the case. She said her husband also was arrested, which would bring to six the number of people in custody. Police confirmed they have six people in custody, not five, as was originally reported.

Farouk said her son would never plot a terror attack. She described him as a business student at George Mason University in suburban Washington.

A law enforcement official says none of the five missing men "had shown up on law enforcement's radar" before they were reported missing.

Maybe they were at the wrong place at the wrong time. Maybe they were unwittingly lured there. There's more to this story and I'd caution against forming any judgments until more is known. At least the State Department will be seeking consular access to those who are Americans. I don't imagine Pakistan is a friendly place to face interrogation upon arrest. For that reason alone, I'd be suspect of any claimed confessions.

Via Media Matters -- Bush Press Secretary Dana Perino -- "We did not have a terrorist attack on our country during President Bush's term."

Where's Rudy when you need him?

President Obama called NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly today to thank him for "thwarting the terror plot that targeted the city's subway system, police said."

Obama expressed his "appreciation and admiration" for the NYPD's effort in stopping the attack, sources said.

Except, there was no known plot to target the city's subway system. The Feds have consistently said they have no evidence Nabijullah Zazi was planning an imminent attack, and if he was, where it was to take place, what he was targeting or when.

"Nothing in the bulletins references the current investigation," a Federal Bureau of Investigation issued spokesman said Tuesday. Investigators still don't have specific evidence indicating an imminent threat to particular targets in the alleged plot, federal officials said.

They are speculating Zazi was planning something for Sept. 11, but don't know that. Big difference. No one has a clue what Zazi was up to with his chemicals. September 11 came and went with Zazi in New York and there was no attack. And, as to thanking the NYPD, had they not blown it by alerting the Iman who notified Zazi's father he was being watched, the feds might have a lot more information than they do now. [More....]

Magistrate Judge Craig Shaffer today denied bond for Najibullah Zazi on the New York Indictment charging him with conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction. He granted the request filed by the Government yesterday to dismiss the Colorado false statements charge. Arguing against bond, AUSA Tim Neff told the Court:

"(The evidence) suggested the defendant was intent on making a bomb and being in New York on 9/11 for the purpose of using such an item."

His lawyer, Arthur Folsom, argued the opposite:

"He was there on September 11. The entire time on September 11 and nothing happened," Folsom said.

Having denied bond, the Court ordered Zazi transferred to New York to face trial on its Indictment. The Colorado case is over as to him. The false statement charge against his father, Mohammed Zazi, is still pending. The next hearing in that case is October 9. The elder Zazi was released on bail yesterday.