Tag: 2008 (page 19)

Obama: politics of change, hope and unity? Check out his new ad attacking Hillary Clinton airing today on television called "Hometown."

He accuses Hillary of taking the low road on the economy. Shorter version: Meet the new boss, he's the same as the ones he's trying to replace.

Text of ad below:

USA Today reports on its new poll conducted with Gallup:

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp.

The numbers:

In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.

Then there's this:

Eight of 10 Americans have been following [the Rev. Wright controversy] most of them closely...Just 1% of likely voters say Obama's links to Wright make them more likely to support him.

If I were an Indiana voter listening to Obama, I don't think I'd appreciate him telling me that since I've lost my job, I've lost my dignity. The crowd didn't react to the statement. Certainly no cheering.

See what you think.

From Only in America, Newsweek's cover story today (page 4):

Eyeing those Reagan Democrats, the McCain camp believes that if Obama wins the nomination, the Republicans might have a shot at some states considered to be safe Clinton territory, like New York and New Jersey. Those big former industrial states—Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan—could all go Republican if the Democrats pick Obama. On the other hand, the Obama advisers argue that by appealing to independents and registering new young voters, Obama could take states in the West like Colorado and Nevada that seem unreachable to Clinton. By energizing his black base, Obama could even take away two or three Southern states—Virginia and the Carolinas, perhaps—from the GOP. The Obama-ites also predict that once the hard fighting of the primaries finally ends, the Democratic Party will come together, and Democrats alienated by all the feuding will come home.

More...

Back in February, Bloomberg and Politico published an internal spreadsheet from the Obama campaign with calculations on the pledged delegate and superdelegate split. The Clinton Campaign brought up the spreadsheet today, asking if Obama still thought he was going to win Indiana by 7 points.

The memo is here in Xcel. If you don't have Xcel, I've converted it to pdf and you can view it here.

Check all the states, the campaign was off on several. It predicted only a 5 point loss in PA, a 7 point loss in Ohio and an 11 point win in Guam. For NC, it predicts an 8 point win and for Indiana, a 7 point win. Also, for Montana, an 11 point win. For South Dakota, a 15 point win. For Puerto Rico, an 8 point loss. It also predicts double digit losses in KY and W.Va.

What do I take from this? Obama knew back in Feb. he needed to work to convince the rural and blue collar voters of Ohio and PA and was unable to do so. Those states are critical in November. Why should the superdelegates believe he can take them in November?

When Hillary Clinton appeared on Nightline this week, Cynthia McFadden asked her (from the transcript, ABC News, May 1, 2008, Clinton on the Rise, available on Lexis.com):

Would you be running for president if Chelsea were 10?

Hillary: No. Not a chance. I just couldn't have done it. I could never have run for office if I had young children. I just couldn't have done it.

Barack Obama brought his daughters, ages 6 and 9, along to campaign events in Indiana today. Michelle said it was an exciting time for the girls, a special treat.

Obama often mentions how he misses his children while campaigning. A few times he's flown home for a night just to be able to see them off to school in the morning. [More...]

Barack Obama has been blasting the temporary lifting of gas taxes as political gamesmanship and bad economic sense. He didn't always. While in the Illinois Senate, he woted for it.

Available on Lexis.com: Chicago Defender July 1, 2000,

While Gov. George H. Ryan signed legislation suspending Illinois' five percent sales tax on gasoline for six months and issued an executive order creating state monitoring teams, Mayor Richard M. Daley Thursday vowed to keep an eagle eye on gas prices in Chicago.

Some people opposed it. Among their arguments:

Dr. Quentin Young, chairman of the Health and Medicine Policy Research Group, who said those funds are earmarked for health, education, and human services.

He called the passage of the state's six-month gas tax reduction nothing more than a "pre-November election states-manship" saying this will only force the legislature to compensate in other ways while "compromising the health of Illinois residents with future raids of the tobacco settlement funds and other state-funded programs."

Where was Obama on the issue?

Senators Kimberly A. Lightford (D-4th) and Barack Obama (D-13th) said the bill gives customers needed temporary relief from high gas prices. "Gas retailers must post on each pump a statement that indicates that the state tax has been suspended and that this temporary elimination of the tax should be reflected in the price per gallon of gas," said Obama.

What happened: [more...]

The Pew Research Center: Obama's image is slipping. The AP discusses the poll here.

More polls:

• CNN: Obama losing ground

• Gallup Daily Tracking: Hillary 49, Obama 45.

• Teleresearch (Indiana): Hillary has a 10 point lead over Barack Obama

• In North Carolina:

  Raleigh's Public Policy Polling has found that Obama's one-time lead of 25 points has decreased to 12. A SurveyUSA poll shows him ahead by 5, while the Rasmussen Reports poll has Obama's lead at 14.

More....

Hillary Clinton will be on Fox with Bill O'Reilly tonight. In case you aren't able to tune in, here's what she says about Rev. Wright and Obama.

O'Reilly: "Can you believe this Rev. Wright guy? Can you believe this guy?"
Clinton: "Well, I'm going to leave it up to voters to decide."
O'Reilly: "Well, what do you think as an American?"
Clinton: "Well, what I said when I was asked directly is that I would not have stayed in the church.
O'Reilly: "You're an American citizen, I'm an American citizen, He's an American citizen, Rev. Wright. What do you think when you hear a fellow American citizen say that kind of stuff about America."
Clinton: "Well, I take offense. I think it's offensive and outrageous. I'm going to express my opinion, others can express theirs. It is part of just, you know, an atmosphere we're in today."

Barack Obama's campaign filed a complaint with the FEC today over a 527 group's ad attacking Obama's economic plan for having no specifics.

He didn't always feel that way about 527 ads. When a group supporting John Edwards aired one in Iowa he was critical, saying:

You can't just talk the talk. The easiest thing in the world is to talk about change during election time."

But when a 527 group aired a shameful ad on Spanish radio stations in Nevada that re-injected ethnicity into the campaign, an ad that supported him and attacked Hillary in Nevada,

A spokesman for Obama, Bill Burton, did not condemn the ad or the independent spending specifically, but instead attacked Clinton.

More...

Barack Obama is not just lagging among blue collar voters, he's got a big age problem to overcome and his popularity with younger voters isn't enough compensation:

In the Pennsylvania and Ohio primaries, Obama lost older whites by 30 percentage points, while Clinton split white voters under age 30 in both critical contests. Obama’s senior problem is even greater among Hispanics. The Illinois senator lost older Latinos by 40 to 60 percentage points in Texas, New Mexico and California.

....Older, college-educated voters consistently favor Clinton, though by small margins. Obama’s weakness is largely among seniors without college degrees, whom Clinton wins 3-to-1.

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Karl Rove, writing in Newsweek, says Obama needs to recover from his recent fumbles. He offers six tips:

• Get a new stump speech, the message in his current one has become old and tired.
• When you're on the defense, as with Rev. Wright, choose one explanation and stick to it.
• Get back to the Senate and do some work there. His legislative record is thin and needs bolstering. He says, pick an issue and own it.
• Get back to the Senate, part II: Also, he hasn't shown he has the unifying ability he claims in his red states, blue states unity pitch. He should introduce bipartisan bills that Republicans can get behind. Also, name some specific Republicans he'd put in his Administration.

[More...]