Tag: 2008 (page 27)

Update: Now that Ralph Nader has selected Matt Gonzales as his running mate, which I did not know when this post was written, I've written a follow-up here.

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Matt Gonzales is a progressive and the former president of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. He's also a former public defender, former Democrat and green party candidate who ran a well-respected and close campaign against San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. (Bill Clinton campaigned for Newsom, who won.)

He started thinking he didn't know too much about Barack Obama other than the change meme, so he did some pretty exhaustive research on his voting record. As a result, he says, "Count Me Out." Check out his issue by issue comparison and then his conclusion:

Once I started looking at the votes Obama actually cast, I began to hear his rhetoric differently. The principal conclusion I draw about “change” and Barack Obama is that Obama needs to change his voting habits and stop pandering to win votes. If he does this he might someday make a decent candidate who could earn my support. For now Obama has fallen into a dangerous pattern of capitulation that he cannot reconcile with his growing popularity as an agent of change.

I remain impressed by the enthusiasm generated by Obama’s style and skill as an orator. But I remain more loyal to my values, and I’m glad to say that I want no part in the Obama craze sweeping our country.

I think Gonzales' view is even more telling when you consider who supported him for Mayor in 2003. It wasn't the Democratic establishment, it was the change folks, including: [More...]

David Gergen, former advisor to President Bill Clinton confirms to CNN that Hillary Clinton did not support NAFTA:

And for Clinton supporters out there, here's a late nighter: Hillary's new Texas ad, One of a Million

There's a new LA Times/Bloomberg national poll. The key findings:

• Between McCain, Obama and Hillary:

  In head-to-head contests, the poll found, McCain leads Clinton by 6 percentage points (46% to 40%) and Obama by 2 points (44% to 42%). Neither lead is commanding given that the survey, conducted Feb. 21-25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
  

• On the economy, Hillary beats McCain 43% to 34% while McCain beats Obama 42% to 34%. That's a big difference.

[More...]

In 2004, the Democratic ticket carried 20 states with 252 electoral votes. Obviously, it wasn't enough. What other states are most likely to play a role in 2008? Which of the Democratic candidates would be the Party's most successful candidate in the general election?

William Arnone, a long-time Democratic Party activist who worked with Robert F. Kennedy in 1967-68 has updated his July, 2007 analysis of "Key States in the 2008 Presidential Election."

The ten states are: Arkansas; Colorado; Florida; Iowa; Missouri; Nevada; New Mexico; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia.

With his permission, I reprint his newest analysis below:

While I happen to agree at present that Barack Obama does not have sufficient experience to be President, I think it's pretty obvious voters around the country aren't sold on the concept.

At a fundraiser in Boston today, Hillary told her supporters:

"We're going to emphasize more and more the experience gap," Clinton told several hundred supporters who had paid at least $500 to attend a Boston fundraiser. "You'll hear a lot about it the next eight days."

The New York senator said the posters voters are bringing to her events indicate that the issue of experience is coming to the forefront.

"When I first started, it was 'You Go Girl,' 'Women Making History,' all about the pioneering nature of my candidacy," Clinton said. Recently, she said, the signs had changed. "In Houston last night, it was, 'We Want Experience, Not An Experiment,' and 'The White House Is No Place for Training Wheels,'" she said.

Can this work now? I'm not convinced. Perhaps, if John McCain, who has begun making the same argument about Obama, keeps hitting the experience factor this week, it might resonate. [More...]

Nation of Islam founder Louis Farrakhan is now singing the praises of Barack Obama:

In his first major public address since a cancer crisis, Nation of Islam Minister Louis Farrakhan said Sunday that presidential candidate Barack Obama is the "hope of the entire world" that the U.S. will change for the better.

"This young man is the hope of the entire world that America will change and be made better," he said. "This young man is capturing audiences of black and brown and red and yellow. If you look at Barack Obama's audiences and look at the effect of his words, those people are being transformed."

Obama isn't happy with the endorsement:

Said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton: "Sen. Obama has been clear in his objections to Minister Farrakhan's past pronouncements and has not solicited the minister's support."

More...

Check out today's Gallup Daily Tracking Poll showing the month of February, with latest results taken Feb. 22-23. (Larger version here.)

Hillary started February off with 47%. She's now at 46%. She rose 4% in the past few days.

Obama peaked on Feb. 17 at 49%. He had a 7 percent lead over Hillary then. Now, he's down 2 percent to 47% and has stayed flat the last few days. Hillary, meanwhile, is up 4 points from Feb. 17.

In the last few days alone, Obama has stayed flat while Hillary has risen 1%.

Where's the momentum?

The Democratic presidential primary has been fairly unconventional so far. The Boston Globe has an article today about what Ronald Reagan did in 1976 when he was losing big-time to Gerald Ford: He named his vice-presidential running mate. He came closer, but ended up not winning the nomination.

Despite naming Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania the would-be vice president to shore up support among Republican moderates, Reagan lost the delegate race by a little more than 100. But picking a vice president while trailing in delegates was a bold technique that some political analysts think might repeat itself in this year's tight Democratic race, the first since the Reagan-Ford contest that could go down to the wire in the same way.

....Selecting a popular vice presidential nominee could win over some superdelegates - uncommitted party leaders invited to the convention - while perhaps also attracting some voters in late primaries, analysts said.

The article considers whether this is something Hillary Clinton might do now. It mentions, as possible picks, General Wesley Clark and Bill Richardson.[ More...]

(Updated to include video). Comments now closed.)

Do not miss the You Tube of Tina Fey's commentary on Saturday Night Live last night when it comes out. It was incredible. My DD has a rough transcript of the last part.

Tina Fey:I want to say something about those calling Hillary a b*tch...

Yeah, well she is...So am I, so is she (pointing at Weekend Update news host Amy Poehler.) Deal with it.

B*tches get sh*t done (Amy says yeah and starts nodding her head in rhythmn and saying more yeahs,uuh huhs and a you go girl.)

Like back in grammar school, they could have had priests teaching you but no, they had tough old nuns who sleep on cots and can hit ya and you HATE those b*tches. But the end of the school year you sure knew the capital of Vermont

So come on....Its not too late Texas and Ohio, get on board... B*tch is the new Black!

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The Washington Post examines Barack Obama's prospects in November of winning the red states.

While Obama has shown an ability to reshape voting patterns, his record in the primaries suggests that he still has a ways to go in making significant inroads in Republican states.

The red states where he has won have tended to be in the Deep South, where victories were based on overwhelming support from African Americans, or in mostly white states in the Midwest and West, where he relied on a core of ardent backers to carry him in caucuses, which favor candidates with enthusiastic supporters. He has not fared as well in areas that fall in between, with populations that are racially diverse but lack a black population large enough to boost Obama to victory.

Tennessee is an example of the possible limits to Obama's broader appeal:

The New York Times reports on Barack Obama's campaign event in Austin, TX.

A touch of cockiness is discernable in his manner now; he is like a gambler convinced his every dice roll will come up double sixes.

He enumerates his critics' complaints about him. When he gets to "I'm not tough enough" he adds,

“Listen, I’m a black guy named Barack Obama running for president. You want to tell me that I’m not tough enough?” He smirks. “Shoot.”

[More...]

I guess Obama supporters don't support the right of other groups to get a message out to voters. (Background here.) Via the Wall St. Journal:

Three supporters of the Illinois Democrat mailed a complaint to the Federal Election Commission today charging that the pro-Clinton organization is violating election laws.

This is designed to create negative press for Hillary. How do we know that?

It is highly unlikely that the Obama supporters will get what they want from the FEC any time soon. For one, the FEC is notoriously slow. It took three years to settle similar complaints lodged against independent political entities that ran advertisements in the 2004 election.

For another: [More...]